Étape 1

Base Portfolio

When it helps: when you do not yet know where to start

The Base Portfolio starts from a very simple idea: nobody knows in advance which economic environment will dominate. Instead of betting everything on one asset, savings are spread across four different blocks.

Start here. If you understand the Base Portfolio, the other portfolios become much simpler: they do not replace the base, they only add rules for more difficult cases.

Reference point

4 equal-weight blocks

Logic

Remember the 4 economic environments? Here, the goal is not to choose the right one in advance: one block is placed in each. If capitalism continues to create value over time, the stocks naturally pushes the portfolio, while gold, bonds and cash keep answers for less favorable environments.

Visual allocation

Click a slice of the circle or a block to open the explanation.

Portfolio idea

How it is supposed to help

What holds the portfolio together

  • Les stocks seek long-term growth.
  • Gold is mainly useful when inflation or trust in money becomes worrying.
  • Les bonds mainly help in deflation, when the world slows and rates fall.
  • Le cash helps when everything falls apart: it avoids being forced to sell at the wrong time.
  • Rebalancing regularly brings each block back around 25%.

The simple idea

Remember the 4 economic environments? Here, the goal is not to choose the right one in advance: one block is placed in each. If capitalism continues to create value over time, the stocks naturally pushes the portfolio, while gold, bonds and cash keep answers for less favorable environments.

Beginner reference point

Si vous ne deviez comprendre qu'une chose, retenez ceci : ce portefeuille ne choisit pas un gagnant. Il accepte que le futur soit incertain et garde quatre réponses simples en même temps.

The Base Portfolio in practice

The most useful thing is not to stare at a perfect theory. It is to see how the four blocks behaved across several countries and periods.

Starting at 100

Everything starts at 100. If the curve ends at 200, purchasing power has doubled.

What you are looking at

The curves show real purchasing power, meaning what remains after inflation.

How to read the page

Read the three curves together, then the interpretation bubble just below.

Real comparison

United States, Japan and Turkey on the same chart

Each curve shows only the country's Base Portfolio, in real purchasing power. Stocks, gold, bonds and cash are no longer shown separately here: the aim is to compare the overall result.

Extreme volatility

Stocks alone vs Base Portfolio

For each country, the chart compares the worst historical fall in local stocks with the same country's Base Portfolio. The point is not to promise a smooth ride, but to see how much diversification cushioned the big shocks.

United States 2.1x less severe 27.4 points less drawdown
Stocks alone
-51.6%
Base Portfolio
-24.2%
Japan 3.1x less severe 39.7 points less drawdown
Stocks alone
-58.4%
Base Portfolio
-18.7%
Turkey 2.5x less severe 36.9 points less drawdown
Stocks alone
-61.9%
Base Portfolio
-25.0%

What to remember

  • The curves show purchasing power after local inflation, not just raw amounts.
  • In this theoretical model, each block is periodically brought back around 25% to keep the starting balance.
  • Diversification does not remove drawdowns, but it often makes the journey much less violent than stocks alone.
  • Its weak point is that a 4% to 5% annual return can feel low. The next portfolio is designed to address part of that weakness.
  • Another weakness: in some countries, cash and bonds locales peuvent perdre beaucoup de purchasing power.

Next step

Après la Base, on garde l'idée simple mais on corrige un défaut : l'or and bonds do not protect against the same risk. The next step learns how to choose the defensive sleeve according to the environment: gold when inflation dominates, bonds when deflation takes over again.

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